Pakistan’s New Opening: Strategic Significance of Armenia in the Caucasus
Armenia, a small landlocked nation in the Caucasus, might prove geopolitically significant for Pakistan, especially during this changing global order. Pakistan, due to its strategic alignment with Azerbaijan, is the last country to officially recognize Armenia. Even during the Azerbaijan-Armenian war, Pakistan and Israel collectively supported and assisted Azerbaijan. The strategic significance that Azerbaijan provides to Pakistan can further be increased by embracing good relations with its border state (Armenia), which can also be true for the entire Caucasus region. The region mainly includes Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and small parts of other states like Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. The stability of this region can be questioned due to wars, conflict, and ethnic clashes, but it is without a doubt rapidly moving toward sustainable peace. The dismantling of PKK (a Kurdistan terrorist organization), Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, Turkey-Armenia normalization, the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, and now Pakistan recognizing Armenia all hint toward a prosperous region in which Pakistan can become a major stakeholder.
The Armenia and Azerbaijan peace deal (8-8-2025) in the US under Trump’s mediation declared both sides to permanently end hostilities and establish diplomatic ties, ultimately ending decades-old hostility. Pakistan, a major ally of Azerbaijan, then also recognized Armenia due to its strategic alignment with Azerbaijan. Historically, Pakistan, Turkey, and Israel supported Azerbaijan while Russia supported Armenia as its proxy during conflicts. Pakistan supported Azerbaijan due to its alignment with Turkey, while Israel had weapons and defense markets in Azerbaijan. The conflict emerged after the disintegration of the USSR when Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan gained independence, but due to regional politics and intervention of great powers like the US and Russia to maintain influence over the region, instability persisted—especially as the region also hosts a large Kurd population, increasing ethnic tension and conflict.
Geo-Economic Benefit
This new stability can pave a path for Pakistan in terms of new markets in the Caucasus and geopolitical alignment with another great power, Russia. Pakistan already has good ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan; including Armenia in its strategic scope can further enhance Pakistan’s strategic reach into Eurasia. The Caucasus is a bridge between Europe and Asia, sitting at the crossroads of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the Black & Caspian Seas, and is a potential contributor to the global energy economy. Stable diplomatic relations in this region might bring cheap energy to Pakistan. Pakistan’s existing freight train service, the Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad (ITI) Railway, can expand further into the Caucasus till Russia as conditions become friendly for business.
This region also hosts the China–Central Asia–West Asia Economic Corridor (CCAWEC), while Armenia signed an MoU regarding BRI participation in 2015. Pakistan, being a key strategic ally of China, can benefit from this corridor as it provides an alternate route to Eurasia rather than relying solely on western/European routes. If Pakistan completes its rail and road connections with Central Asia, it could tap into CCAWEC as a branch line, linking Gwadar/Karachi ports to the Caucasus-Europe route. Armenia also imports staples like rice and wheat, which Pakistan can capitalize on as an agrarian economy.
Whoever controls the Caucasus transit corridors influences energy politics and trade chokepoints, where stability plays a vital role by providing a business-friendly environment. Armenia’s geoeconomics has been constrained by blockades and dependency, but with peace initiatives and shifting great-power competition, it could transform into a critical transit state and resource hub—provided it balances relations with its contenders. Neighboring states already have good relations with Pakistan, and Pakistan’s mediation and status as a major regional power can play a key role in the region’s future.
The Caucasus region (Armenia and Azerbaijan) will gain access to transit networks through Iran and Turkey, while Pakistan will benefit from new markets and increased FDI. These transit networks will also open new paths for Russian export of cheap oil to Pakistan, vital for its industry and electricity. Mining is Armenia’s main export engine—copper, molybdenum, gold, and other metals that can prove vital for Pakistan, especially for renewable energy (e.g., solar panels). Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), aligning it economically with Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan, further providing markets and strategic alliances for Pakistan. Armenia’s key advantage lies in its role in major transit projects encompassing BRI through CCAWEC, the EAEU, and the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the EU, highlighting its importance in accessing the European market.
Geo-Political Benefit
The political narrative might carry even greater importance, as Pak-Russia ties are warming and Russia aims to invest in Pakistan Steel Mills in Karachi. The heightened trade war is leading to South-South Cooperation and an anti-West alliance, where Russia and China are the main contenders. Both great powers have interests in this region, and Armenia being a transit state makes it strategically significant for Pakistan as the US declines as a hegemon.
Armenian relations will also bring Pakistan closer to Russia—a strategic advantage, especially against India, which uses Russian S-400 defense systems against Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan’s relations with Armenia can balance India’s growing ties with Yerevan, where India has supplied weapons. Islamabad can serve as a Eurasian voice to counter Indian influence in the Caucasus.
A new window of opportunity has opened for Pakistan to expand its influence in the Caucasus, Eurasia, and beyond. Stability in this region offers Pakistan access to energy corridors, transit routes, and new markets, while strengthening ties with Russia, China, and Turkey. Moreover, engagement with Armenia allows Pakistan to balance India’s growing influence in Yerevan and enhance its own standing in Eurasian geopolitics. Armenia’s participation in the BRI, EAEU, and CEPA highlights its role as a gateway between Asia and Europe, and Pakistan, as a strategic partner of China and a rising regional power, cannot afford to ignore this potential.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance, policies, or official position of The Spine Times.
